1，Market Dynamics

2，Monthly Macroeconomic Indicators

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)*

Annual Growth Rate of Industrial Production (%)

Annual Growth Rate of Retail Sales (%)

Monthly Exports (USD Billion)

Source: Trading Economics

Note: If data for certain months is unavailable, it indicates that the figures have not yet been disclosed. *A PMI above 50 indicates economic expansion.

3，Consumer Confidence Index

China’s Full-Year Import and Export Data 2025

Overview

China’s total annual import and export value reached 45.47 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 3.8%.

Within this figure, exports amounted to 26.99 trillion yuan, rising by 6.1%, while imports totalled 18.48 trillion yuan, growing by 0.5%.

Key Sectors

1，China’s exports of high-tech products totalled 5.25 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.2%.

2，Shipments of green products, such as the “New Three” (electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells) and wind turbines, grew by 27.1% and 48.7%, respectively.

3，Exports of self-owned brand products rose by 12.9%, increasing their share in total export value by 1.4 percentage points.

4，Cross-border e-commerce import and export volume reached 2.75 trillion yuan, representing growth of 69.7% compared to 2020.

Market Highlights

Red Sea Shipping: Recovery on the Horizon

Although the risk of conflict has decreased, it remains significantly higher than pre-crisis levels. It is anticipated that shipping companies will not resume the #Suez Canal route on a large scale before at least the latter half of 2026. Even if reopening occurs, the process will be gradual and subject to disruptions.

Impact on Shipping:

• Vessel congestion and scheduling disruptions are likely during the initial recovery phase.
• Insurance and security costs may offset the fuel/time savings offered by the Suez route.
• Freight rates are expected to face downward pressure in 2026 as congestion eases.

EU Emissions Trading System to Reach Full 100% Scope by End of 2026

Beginning in 2026, the #EU ETS will charge for 100% of emissions from all intra-EU voyages, with the associated carbon surcharge expected to increase by +43%–45%.

ETS Emission Coverage in 2026:

• Import/Export voyages: 50%
• Transshipment voyages: 50%
• Intra-EU/EEA voyages: 100%

Impact on Shipping:

• Carbon surcharges are projected to rise significantly as the scope of the ETS expands.
• Route optimization strategies, such as reducing intra-EU segments and utilizing transshipment to lower ETS exposure, will be increasingly adopted.
• More stringent carbon emission reporting requirements will lead to increased compliance costs.

Europe Sea Freight Route Updates

Asia-Europe (Freight Route)

Asia → Northern Europe:
The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) continues to show a slight upward trend, with capacity utilisation rates steadily rising.

Average freight rates currently range approximately between USD 1,400 – 2,500.

Europe Air Freight Route Updates

Asia-Europe (Freight Route)

Increase in Demand:
As the Spring Festival and the end of the month approach, cargo volumes are steadily rising, and airlines’ published freight rates are also showing an upward trend.

Unit: per kilogram

*Trends and commentary are provided by CEVA’s operations team.

**Charts are based on WorldACD data.

Please note: Minor discrepancies may exist in the analysis due to variations in data sources.